Regardless of what you “think” is going to happen in the next 3 to 5 years with the real estate sales market, one thing is for sure, change is almost certain. Based on this belief the only real safe way to protect yourself is to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
You see, if you hope and plan for the best and the worst happens, what do you think will happen to you?
If you plan for the worst and the best happens, what happens to you now?
If you plan for the worst and the worst does happen, provided your plans for the worst were acceptable for you, then will you still be OK through the worst (which always has an end like the recent 10 year drought) and what will happen to you when the tide turns and get’s better again?
Well, we may very well be coming into a very different real estate market.
Despite most agents not wanting to confront the reality of where we are heading as Seth Godin says in his best selling book “Linchpin” those that survive and thrive in any market conditions are those that “see the world as it is and not as you want it to be or how it used to be”.
You notice how I didn’t say a worse market or a bad market?
In my opinion a different market is just that. Different, not better or worse, simply what is.
So when we have the courage to look at the reality we empower ourselves to adapt and position ourselves to maintain our results or prosper, while many (who CHOOSE to see things the way they want to see them) will leave the industry and get defeated by “what happened”.
The real estate agents that have thrived in the past 5-10 years will have one of three responses in the next 3- 5 years:
1. Those that saw things the way it was and made “it happen”
2. Those that saw things the way it was and watched “it happen”
3. Those that saw things the way they wanted to see things and said “what happened”.
OK, let’s take a quick look at the different scenarios of best and worst.
Scenario 1: Best Case Scenario
The real estate prices stay the same (flat) or even rise further and people decide to accept working long hard hours and spend 75-80% of their incomes just to pay the interest on their mortgage. And the number of sales continues to remain constant.
Provided you keep doing what you have done for the previous 2-3 years you will likely get the same outcome as you have experienced in the past 2-3 years.
Scenario 2: Worst Case Scenario
The real estate prices soften (let’s say they just come back 10-18% over the next 3 years, that’s just 3-6% per year) and because of this softening, less buyers have confidence to buy.
Would it be possible that if the prices start to come down, the media is going to do what it does best, and sensationalise it?
Due to this exposure of the property prices softening, is it possible that 20-30% of buyers in the market lose confidence and decide to “hold off” buying until they start to see prices rising again?
Just like many sellers, refuse to “meet the market” now, and say “we’ll just wait till the market starts to rise again”?
Let’s take a look at the sales commissions pool for agents in this worst case scenario.
Let’s use the Australian wide average of property sale commission of $10,000 and for the purpose of this scenario let’s say there were 400 sales in your area the past 12 months (look it up on RP Data, APM, PriceFinder or Red Square etc…) this means there is a potential sales commissions pool of $4,000,000 for all real estate agents that service your area to split up and fight for, right?
If prices fall just 18% over the next 3 years, this means the available commission pool also falls by 18% since most agents earn commissions based on a percentage of the sale price. So the available commission pool will fall to $3,280,000.
Due to the fall in prices bringing a fall in buyer confidence, the number of sales also fall by 30%, so the available sales drop from 400 sales to 280 (some areas have already seen a drop in numbers of sales by 50% since 2008).
Don’t panic (It’s just FEAR in your mind), this is just part of the process of planning for the worst so you don’t have to really panic!
Now this lowering of sales numbers from 400 to 280 means the available pool of commissions is down to $2,296,000 over the next 3 years just over half the commissions pool all the agents have been drinking from.
Now the strong agents have less to worry about than the weaker agents in a tougher market but they still have a lot to lose if the available commissions pool almost halves.
Sales agents getting by on 1-2 sales per month or offices with 3-4 sales people writing 1-2 sales on average per salesperson, you do need to make the biggest changes because one way or another, change is going to happen to you if the worst case scenario happens.
The choice is whether your change is going to be in the real estate sales industry or the next booming industries like health care or funeral sales.
The strong agents, those that average 3-4 sales or more per month can probably weather the storm of a tougher market because they won’t like it, but on average these agents will be able to survive on 1-2 sales per month.
Plus the strong agents also get the added relief that the weak agents will be forced to leave the industry, actually bringing less competition and hence an even greater proportion of commissions per agent.
Don’t freak out on me here, stay with me because I am going to share with you some solutions you have to empower yourself to ensure you not only survive but thrive through the worst ace scenario if and when it happens. Let’s face it you cannot keep breathing in without breathing out just like the real estate market cannot continue to keep going up without coming down.
What are your choices in the worst case scenario of the real estate sales industry if the commissions pool is almost halved over the next 3 years?
1. You can CHOOSE to change careers now and looks for an industry that is more likely to rise over the coming 3 years and into the future. Industry like health care and funeral sales.
2. You can CHOOSE to improve your skills so you can maintain your existing levels of sales without increasing your input of hours to get the same results.
3. You can CHOOSE to work twice as many hours to speak to double the amount of prospects to get the same levels of results. The average agent already works 59.76 hours per week, can you double this?
4. You can CHOOSE to do a combination of 2 and 3. Can you increase your hours by 50%? 59.76 x 1.5 = 89.64 hours per week or 6 days working 14.94 hours per day!
5. You can CHOOSE to find an environment where you get double your existing commission split. So if you are currently on a 30/70% commission split with your principal or sales team. You negotiate a 60/40% split? If you are currently on a 50/50% split, who is going to win, the sales person or the owner of the business? There are business models now emerging that provide sales agents with a lot more support and service than most traditional office and the sales agents also get much higher percentages of the commission. You can check out more about Oz Combined Realty at http://www.ozcombinedrealty.com.au/agents/ and you can view the Oz Combined Realty info video on You Tube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ7GtFucneo&feature=youtu.be
6. You can CHOOSE to find new ways of finding prospect to speak with that do not require more hours of prospecting.
If you currently follow up with open house lists to find listings, maybe you have to speak with 10 or 20 groups before you find a listing appointment. Now if you list 50% of the listing appointments you attend then you have to speak to 20 or 40 groups to find a listing. Now let’s take a conservative average and say that your list to sell ratio is 50%, then you really have to list 2 properties to make a sale. This means you have to speak with 40-80 groups to get a sale if you have enough listings and or inspections from your opens.
If you currently rely on cold prospecting to find sellers. And you were used to finding 1 listing appointment for every 100 people you spoke with. Based on the same numbers above you will have to speak with 400 people to get a sale (if the numbers of sales fall by 30% this means you have to increase this number by 30% to 520 people, let’s just leave this out for the moment).
Do you know how many hours it takes to actually speak with 100 people cold prospecting? Well it depends on your area and the amount of people who are home. It could take anywhere from 6-8 hours if you had nothing else to do, but most sales agents also have vendors to manage and buyer enquires and inspections to handle.
This means a sales person needs to invest 24 to 32 hours just to get one sale and this does not include the time it takes them to handle buyer enquires, manage sellers and finalise the negotiation through to “unconditional”. Let’s add 40 hours to manage 2 listings to get each sale. That’s a total of 64 to 72 hours per sale.
Based on the average commission rate of $10,000 and the average commission split of 40% for sales person and 60% for principal, the sales person get’s $4,000 (before tax is taken out 30% = $1,200 = $2,800 for sales person).
The principal get’s $6,000 with about 30% tax = $4,200. For the sales agent, who does most of the work in a deal, this equates to $43.75 to $38.88 per hour after tax.
But something doesn’t add up here because the average agent is working 59.76 hours per week. Based on these numbers agents should be averaging 3-4 sales per month. 59.76 hours times 4.33 weeks per month = 258.76 hours per month. If it takes only 64 to 72 hours to get a sale, then the average agent should be making 258.76 divided by 64 (hours best case) = 4 sales per month. And worst case 258.76 divided by 72 hours = 3.59 sales per month. But the average agent is only making 1.8 sales per month…..
Looks like we may have an efficiency error. Either sales agents are wasting too much time to accomplish each sale and working too hard or it simply takes longer than we have calculated to create a sale. Maybe we have been too conservative in our estimates of time…
Either way, regardless of what you “Think” is going to happen in the real estate market over the next 3-5 years:
- Are you going to plan for the worst and hope for the best? OR
- Are you going to bury your head in the sand and plan for the best and hope for the best?
Surely you will be better off if you plan for the worst and the best happens? It makes good sense right?
Which ever way you CHOOSE to go, you will encounter change. It’s up to you whether you want to see improvement in change or the worst of change.
My guess is that those that choose to re-invent themselves now will prosper through the upcoming times, good or bad. It will not effect them. Just like itunes has thrived during the record industries demise. Just like Virgin Blue thrived through the collapse of Ansett and just like Toyota has thrived by re-inventing themselves with the “Prius” while many car manufacturers struggled etc, etc…
The point is, you have a CHOICE. You are responsible for what happens to you. Take advantage of this opportunity to change and improve yourself. Those that re-invent are more likely to grow personally also.
I sincerely wish you all the best with what ever you CHOOSE!
Best wishes
Barry Liddle
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